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The US population is aging quickly, with the share of the population age 65+ expected to reach 20% by 2074¹. As more households transition from the accumulation to spending phases of retirement, the relationship between retiree spending and saving, and key economic indicators like growth, inflation and broader financial conditions is only becoming more interdependent. Looking ahead to the forces shaping retirement security in 2026, we see two main risks to watch.

The first is the risk that an AI-driven equity bubble could deflate, triggering a major correction in Magnificent 7 stocks. Many retiree portfolios are overallocated to equities, and with the top 10 stocks by market cap driving more than 35% of the S&P 500鈥檚 value², concentration risk increases the impact of any potential correction.  

The second is increasing inflation, whether caused by economic reacceleration, politically driven interest rate cuts or other factors. Accelerating inflation would add downward pressure on all consumers, and disproportionately affect retiree budgets.

For retirees and near-retirees, the combination of concentrated equity exposure and the risk of renewed inflation makes portfolio construction and income protection more critical than at any point in recent decades.

Americans today are increasingly anxious about retirement, and seeking certainty amid uncertain economic and market factors. Two structural factors underscore their anxiety. First, declining access to traditional defined benefit pension plans over the last several decades has left many people income insecure in retirement. As a result, average US earners derive less than 10% of their overall wealth from pensions³, meaning they rely on lump sum savings rather than predictable income for retirement spending 鈥� a complex process for most to manage. Second, structural gaps in our retirement infrastructure are leaving savers exposed to risk. For workers in their 50s, the critical decade before retirement, nearly 70% of 401(k) dollars are allocated to equities⁴. They feel every market fluctuation at exactly the time when stability matters most.

New sources of retirement income are needed to buffer those risks. We see guaranteed income solutions becoming a core allocation to anchor retirement portfolios, reintroducing something the system has been missing: true income security.

Annuities are the new safe haven for retirement savers and retirees, and are increasingly serving as the centerpiece of prudent retirement stability strategies. Across today鈥檚 retirement savings and investing landscape, annuity designs can now complement or enhance nearly every core strategy, making it easier to place guaranteed income at the center of a retirement plan. There鈥檚 an annuity for everyone. 

Guaranteed income stacks up favorably to other more traditional safe havens. Treasuries and cash come with inflation risk and low yields. Gold brings no income and carries high prices. By contrast, annuities bring the benefits of tax deferral, principal protection, and strong guaranteed rates of return.

Annuities can also provide superior yields against other guaranteed products. When compared to CDs or money market accounts, annuities can offer nearly 2% more yield annually. The $10 trillion sitting in lower yielding CDs and Money Markets funds could be doing more, generating higher tax-deferred income to support retirement rather than sitting on the sidelines⁵. The benefits of compounding mean that annuities should be a young person鈥檚 product.

The annuity industry is also in the midst of overdue modernization efforts, with key enhancements bringing the industry鈥檚 technology into the future and boosting accessibility for consumers. We have already streamlined the process for annuity rollovers, which account for approximately 45% of volumes across the industry⁶. Now we鈥檙e seeing tools like AI make customer service more efficient and knowledgeable, reducing friction at every step of the annuity journey.

The retirement system is beginning to look beyond fees alone as the simplest benchmark for successful solutions to prioritize outcomes.

Over the past two decades, the rise of index funds, passive strategies, and fee-based competition has reshaped investing. These solutions have their place, but a fee-only view can distract from other potentially more impactful measures of success connected to actual outcomes. 

For individuals and institutions, the most meaningful metrics involve what solutions actually deliver for retirees. There is an opportunity to enhance retirement security, but this requires us to expand our benchmarks and, in many cases, our definition of success. Stability, choice, flexibility, liquidity, and income delivered must be on the new scorecard. 

We see the system evolving toward a place where retirement savers no longer have to accept stark tradeoffs between growth and security, or between access and income, to secure their futures. A solution that saves a few basis points in fees but leaves retirees with thousands less in lifetime income is not a better solution.

As a new year kicks off, we鈥檙e beginning to see one of the most important shifts in modern investing: private markets incorporated into the mainstream financial products that investors know and love. For decades, the tools that powered institutional success鈥攑rivate equity, private credit, and guaranteed income鈥攚ere out of reach for most individuals. That鈥檚 changing fast. Today, whether an individual invests through a brokerage account, or a 401(k), their expectations should be different. They  should demand the same opportunity set as the world鈥檚 largest institutions, delivered through the platforms and formats you already use. That鈥檚 the future we鈥檙e building in New Markets: bridging the gap between how people invest and what they can access.

Private markets have proven themselves as reliable engines of long-term value creation. Since 2000, private equity has outperformed public equities by roughly 300 basis points per year, while private credit has delivered about 400 basis points of excess return since 201 0⁷. Importantly, this outperformance hasn鈥檛 been episodic鈥攊t鈥檚 been consistent, spanning market cycles, geographies, and economic regimes.

Institutional investors have long recognized this. US pensions hold about a quarter of their assets in private markets. Endowments, roughly a third. Family offices, close to 40%. And yet, for the average retirement investor, the number is still effectively zero⁸. 

Within the defined contribution (DC) space, we see more retirees gaining spending certainty thanks to upgraded target date fund structures. Adoption of these next generation guaranteed income solutions in the DC ecosystem is growing, finishing the job by helping people easily save in their working years and spend in retirement. 

DC plan use is at an all-time high, and workers are saving more for retirement thanks to smart plan design features such as auto-enrollment, auto-escalation and auto investments. These features have helped to eliminate a lot of the guesswork retirement savers face in knowing how much to save and where to invest their savings. But navigating the spending phase of retirement remains a complex and overwhelming challenge for many retirees. 

In 2026 more retirees will have the option of selecting target date funds with an embedded income option, and one day these features may well become the default across the industry. For now, solutions that give plan participants automatic yet flexible income and full access to their savings are gaining steam. For plan sponsors, the opportunity is clear: bring together existing auto features with auto-income so that participants retire with an account balance and a plan to spend it.